Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Murphy homered to left (403 feet).2–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Turner doubled to right, Clemens scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Stott hit sacrifice fly to left, Marsh scored, Clemens to third.1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.6 – 4.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +3 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +43 Elo | ATL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–17 | Road vs home | 14–1318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.