New York Mets at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chase AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Díaz singled to center, Profar scored.7–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–9
- 8Profar tripled to right, Tovar scored.7–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–8
- 7McMahon homered to right (439 feet), Díaz scored.7–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 37–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging7–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 7Marte singled to right, McNeil scored.7–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 6Álvarez homered to left (435 feet), Canha scored and Vientos scored.6–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 6Marte grounded out to third, Alonso scored, Baty to third.3–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 6Baty doubled to left, McNeil scored, Alonso to third.2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 4Alonso homered to left center (415 feet).1–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 30–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 51%
- Fair odds
- COL -106
- NYM +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.9 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +8 | NYM: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Anderson: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +8 Elo | COL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 15th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 13–1421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 2–2 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.