Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting3-4
- Austin GomberPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soler doubled to right, Berti scored.4–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 6Cooper homered to right (387 feet), Berti scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5McMahon grounded into fielder's choice to second, Díaz scored, Grichuk out at second.1–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Grichuk singled to center, Blackmon scored and Profar scored, Díaz to third.1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 11–4
- 5Blackmon doubled to center, Toglia scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Castro singled to center, Grichuk scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Soler homered to center (456 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 53%
- Fair odds
- COL -108
- MIA +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.8 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +22 Elo | COL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 11–1223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–1 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.