Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting4-4
- Edward CabreraPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chase AndersonPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stallings singled to right, De La Cruz scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Profar doubled to right, Tovar scored and Doyle scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 6Díaz homered to left center (388 feet).2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Stallings grounded into fielder's choice to third, De La Cruz scored, Wendle to second, Segura out at third.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Arraez singled to center, Stallings scored, Hampson to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Díaz doubled to center, Bryant scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Bryant doubled to left, Profar scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 53%
- Fair odds
- COL -107
- MIA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.8 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +2 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Anderson: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +20 Elo | COL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −1.025th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 16th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 10–1223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.