Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jonathan DavisBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Karl KauffmannPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wendle doubled to left, Gurriel scored and Hampson scored, Wendle out stretching at third.10–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 38–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 28–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 7Soler homered to left center (437 feet).8–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 6Díaz homered to left center (393 feet).7–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 6Davis homered to right (387 feet).7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Stallings hit sacrifice fly to right, Gurriel scored.6–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Arraez doubled to center, Soler scored and Davis scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Berti hit sacrifice fly to right, Stallings scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4De La Cruz stole home, Gurriel stole second.2–1
- 4De La Cruz stole home, Gurriel stole second.2–1
- 4Gurriel singled to center, Arraez scored, De La Cruz to third.1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Profar doubled to right, Blackmon scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 53%
- Fair odds
- COL -109
- MIA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.7 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −9 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · COL: Karl Kauffmann: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +18 Elo | COL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.329th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–14 | Road vs home | 12–1220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–2 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.