Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tovar singled to left, Bryant scored, McMahon to second, Díaz to third.6–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 9Cooper homered to left center (426 feet), Gurriel scored.6–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 9Soler homered to center (419 feet), Edwards scored.4–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 8Doyle reached on infield single to shortstop, Toglia scored, Moustakas out at third on runner's fielder's choice.2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Moustakas singled to center, Blackmon scored and Tovar scored, Toglia to third.2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 8McMahon doubled to right, Grichuk scored, McMahon out stretching at third.2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Díaz homered to left center (443 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Trejo singled to right, Grichuk scored, McMahon to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Edwards singled to left, Davis scored, Hampson to second.2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Gurriel tripled to left, Soler scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 50%
- Fair odds
- COL -107
- MIA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.7 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −2 | MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +2 Elo | COL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 12–1322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–2 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.