New York Mets at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connor SeaboldPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lindor hit sacrifice fly to left, Nimmo scored.5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 8Blackmon homered to right center (443 feet).4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Baty singled to left, Lindor scored, McNeil to second.4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Lindor singled to center, Nimmo scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 2McMahon homered to center (430 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Lindor homered to center (439 feet), Nimmo scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 48%
- Fair odds
- COL -105
- NYM +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.1 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −21 | NYM: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · COL: Connor Seabold: team allows 1.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +17 Elo | NYM 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 16th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 13–1319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 1–2 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.