New York Mets at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baty grounded out to first, Pham scored.10–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging9–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–11
- 9Pham tripled to center, McNeil scored and Marte scored.9–11
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–11
- 7Lindor homered to center (435 feet).7–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–11
- 5McMahon homered to center (437 feet), Bryant scored.6–11
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–11
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–9
- 5Blackmon homered to right (374 feet), Wynns scored.6–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 5Wynns doubled to center, Tovar scored.6–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 36–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 4Grichuk doubled to left, McMahon scored.6–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 4McMahon doubled to center, Blackmon scored, Bryant scored and Profar scored.6–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 4Álvarez homered to left (420 feet), Canha scored and Escobar scored.6–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Escobar singled to left, Pham scored, Canha to second.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Pham doubled to center, Alonso scored and Marte scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 51%
- Fair odds
- COL -107
- NYM +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.1 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +4 Elo | COL 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 16th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 14–1419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 2–3 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.