Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jeff HoffmanPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Riley singled to center, Harris II scored.4–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–10
- 7Schwarber homered to center (441 feet), Castellanos scored.4–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–10
- 5Olson homered to center (445 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.2–10
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 5Acuña Jr. tripled to left, Harris II scored.2–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 3Marsh homered to center (408 feet), Clemens scored.2–7
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 1Acuña Jr. singled to center, Arcia scored and Harris II scored.0–7
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–7
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–5
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 1Albies singled to center, Ozuna scored and Rosario scored.0–5
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Riley homered to center (412 feet).0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Olson homered to right center (464 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Fair odds
- ATL -118
- PHI +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −5 | PHI: Dylan Covey (no track record yet) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +44 Elo | ATL 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 25th of 3011–17 | Road vs home | 14–1420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 2–1 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.