Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thomas singled to center, Call scored.7–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 27–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 8Schwarber grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Marsh scored on throwing error by shortstop Abrams, Sosa out at second.7–7
- 8Schwarber grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Marsh scored on throwing error by shortstop Abrams, Sosa out at second.7–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 26–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 7Castellanos singled to center, Schwarber scored and Stott scored, Harper to third.6–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 6Marsh singled to left, Turner scored.4–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Castellanos homered to center (396 feet), Stott scored.3–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 4García homered to left (366 feet).1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Castellanos homered to right center (380 feet).1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 2Meneses singled to left, Candelario scored.0–6
- 2Pitch 11 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Fair odds
- WSH -111
- PHI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +13 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +23 Elo | WSH 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 26th of 3011–21 | Road vs home | 11–1728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.