Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Mets- Mark CanhaBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vientos hit sacrifice fly to center, Baty scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Canha homered to left center (397 feet), Marte scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3McNeil singled to center, Nimmo scored, Lindor to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Castellanos hit sacrifice fly to center, Harper scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Turner scored on throwing error by catcher Álvarez, Harper stole third.1–0
- 1Turner stole third, Harper stole second. Turner scored, Harper to third on throwing error by catcher Álvarez.1–0
- 1Turner scored on throwing error by catcher Álvarez, Harper stole third.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Fair odds
- NYM -115
- PHI +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 4.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +6 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYM: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +32 Elo | NYM 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 26th of 3011–20 | Road vs home | 14–94th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–2 NYM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.