New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ozuna grounded out to shortstop, Rosario scored, Albies to second.4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Arcia reached on infield single to shortstop, Ozuna scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Ozuna doubled to left, Murphy scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Murphy doubled to left, Olson scored and Riley scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Alonso homered to left center (448 feet), McNeil scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Lindor homered to right (403 feet), Narváez scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Albies homered to center (417 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Fair odds
- ATL -120
- NYM +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +13 | NYM: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +62 Elo | ATL 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 19th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 15–1419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 1–2 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.