Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Eddie RosarioBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting1-3, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rosario homered to left center (407 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Walker doubled to left, Carroll scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Rosario homered to right center (407 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Gurriel Jr. doubled to left, Carroll scored and Perdomo scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Fair odds
- ARI -112
- ATL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +17 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +26 Elo | ARI 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 1st of 3018–9 | Road vs home | 19–124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.