Atlanta Braves at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Ryan NodaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peterson singled to left, Laureano scored, Langeliers to second.2–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 8Langeliers reached on infield single to pitcher, Allen scored, Laureano to third.2–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 12–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 8Laureano singled to left, Díaz scored, Laureano to second, Allen to third.2–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 8Olson homered to right (413 feet).2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Noda homered to right (355 feet), Bride scored and Ruiz scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 5Ruiz singled to left, Peterson scored on error, Ruiz safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Rosario, Bride to third.1–1
- 5Ruiz singled to left, Peterson scored on error, Ruiz safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Rosario, Bride to third.1–1
- 5Ruiz singled to left, Peterson scored on error, Ruiz safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Rosario, Bride to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Murphy singled to center, Olson scored, Riley to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Fair odds
- ATL -112
- OAK +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.1 – 4.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +11 | ATL: Michael Soroka (no track record yet) · OAK: Paul Blackburn (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +53 Elo | ATL 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.430th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 7.130th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −3.630th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 1st of 3017–7 | Road vs home | 5–2330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.