Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Corey JulksBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- James KaprielianPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Brown homered to right center (410 feet), Rooker scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 3Julks singled to center, Bregman scored and Tucker scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Alvarez scored, Tucker to second on passed ball by Pérez, Bregman to third on passed ball by Pérez.3–0
- 3Alvarez scored, Tucker to second on passed ball by Pérez, Bregman to third on passed ball by Pérez.3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Bregman singled to left, Altuve scored, Alvarez to second.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Julks singled to left, Bregman scored, Tucker to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 63%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- OAK +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.7 – 4.5 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −16 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · OAK: James Kaprielian: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +92 Elo | HOU 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 7.130th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −3.530th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 4th of 3014–10 | Road vs home | 5–2030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 3–0 OAK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.