Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Ryan NodaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alvarez homered to right center (427 feet).10–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 9Peña homered to center (412 feet), Altuve scored.9–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 8J. Abreu homered to left (363 feet).7–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 7Altuve homered to left (386 feet).6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 7McCormick homered to right center (391 feet).5–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 4Meyers homered to left (393 feet), Julks scored and Diaz scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Noda homered to right (410 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Alvarez homered to right center (409 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 60%
- Fair odds
- HOU -113
- OAK +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.8 – 4.5 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +5 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +71 Elo | HOU 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 7.030th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −3.530th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3016–10 | Road vs home | 5–2230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 5–0 OAK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.