Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Hogan HarrisPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Langeliers singled to left, Brown scored and Rooker scored, Díaz to second.6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8J. Abreu hit sacrifice fly to right, Bregman scored.6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 8Bregman doubled to left, Altuve scored, Alvarez scored and Peña scored.5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Díaz hit sacrifice fly to left, Laureano scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Peña homered to left center (386 feet), Altuve scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 59%
- Fair odds
- HOU -112
- OAK +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.7 – 4.5 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +13 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · OAK: Austin Pruitt (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +63 Elo | HOU 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 7.030th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −3.530th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 4th of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 5–2130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 4–0 OAK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.