Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connor SeaboldPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zach DaviesPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carroll doubled to center, Marte scored and Moreno scored.4–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 7Marte doubled to left, Rivera scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 7Tovar homered to center (418 feet).4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Gurriel Jr. doubled to left, Walker scored and Marte scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 6Jones singled to center, Castro scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 6Castro singled to center, McMahon scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Doyle singled to left, Moustakas scored, Jones to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 61%
- Fair odds
- ARI -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.4 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +7 | COL: Connor Seabold: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · ARI: Zach Davies: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +77 Elo | ARI 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 29th of 309–19 | Road vs home | 18–125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–5 ARI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.