Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Nolan JonesBatting1-3
- Dinelson LametPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Walker homered to center (449 feet).0–6
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 2Carroll singled to right, Smith scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 2Smith doubled to right, McCarthy scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 20–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Gurriel Jr. singled to right, Marte scored and Carroll scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Carroll singled to right, Smith scored, Marte to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Fair odds
- ARI -119
- COL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.6 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −12 | COL: Dinelson Lamet (no track record yet) · ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +35 Elo | ARI 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 27th of 309–18 | Road vs home | 17–126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–4 ARI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.