Atlanta Braves at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jared ShusterPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Athletics- Ramon LaureanoBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- James KaprielianPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Acuña Jr. singled to right, Arcia scored, Harris II to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pérez grounded out to shortstop, Noda scored, Laureano to second.3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Laureano singled to left, Rooker scored, Noda to third.3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Riley hit by pitch, Arcia scored, Olson to second, Acuña Jr. to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Albies homered to right (348 feet), Rosario scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Fair odds
- ATL -113
- OAK +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.9 – 4.7 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −15 | ATL: Jared Shuster: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · OAK: James Kaprielian: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +74 Elo | ATL 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 6.930th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −3.430th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3017–9 | Road vs home | 7–2330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–2 OAK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.