Atlanta Braves at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Kevin PillarBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bride grounded into fielder's choice to third, Brown scored on fielding error by third baseman Riley, Bleday to second, Laureano to third.1–2
- 9Bride grounded into fielder's choice to third, Brown scored on fielding error by third baseman Riley, Bleday to second, Laureano to third.1–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Ruiz singled to left, Langeliers scored, Allen to second.1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–0
- 3Pillar homered to left (344 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 60%
- Fair odds
- ATL -113
- OAK +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.1 – 4.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +13 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +68 Elo | ATL 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 7.030th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.1 | Margin | −3.530th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 1st of 3017–8 | Road vs home | 6–2330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 OAK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.