Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-5
- Tylor MegillPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Springer scored.2–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Kirk reached on infield single to shortstop, Belt scored, Chapman to second.1–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Vogelbach doubled to center, Marte scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Fair odds
- NYM -107
- TOR +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −6 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +14 Elo | TOR 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 10th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 15–105th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 NYM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.