Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting1-4
- Justin VerlanderPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Varsho homered to right (407 feet), Merrifield scored.3–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Springer homered to center (422 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.4 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −10 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYM: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +5 Elo | TOR 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 17th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 15–94th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.