Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Diamondbacks- Evan LongoriaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 7Perdomo hit by pitch, Rivera scored, Moreno to second, Rojas to third.5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Acuña Jr. homered to left center (464 feet).5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Harris II grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Ozuna scored, Arcia out at second.4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Longoria homered to left (387 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Rosario singled to right, Riley scored, Murphy to second.3–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Ozuna singled to left, Rosario scored, Albies to second.2–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Riley hit sacrifice fly to center, Acuña Jr. scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Fair odds
- ARI -111
- ATL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.1 – 4.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −13 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +9 Elo | ARI 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 24th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3018–10 | Road vs home | 20–124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.