Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Mets- Tommy PhamBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Stephen NogosekPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Belt homered to center (427 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.6–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 6Marte homered to left (415 feet).4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Alonso homered to left (360 feet).4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 5Pham homered to left (397 feet).4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Pham homered to right (372 feet).4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Varsho walked, Chapman scored on throwing error by catcher Álvarez, Varsho to second.4–0
- 3Chapman scored on throwing error by catcher Álvarez, Varsho to second.4–0
- 3Guerrero Jr. homered to left (406 feet).3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Merrifield doubled to center, Chapman scored and Varsho scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 51%
- Fair odds
- NYM -108
- TOR +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +10 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +10 Elo | NYM 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 9th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 15–1111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 2–0 NYM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.