Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rosario homered to right center (381 feet), Harris II scored, Acuña Jr. scored and Riley scored.8–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 7Olson singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 33–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 4Marte homered to right (391 feet), Smith scored.3–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Albies homered to right (400 feet), d'Arnaud scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Rojas singled to right, Walker scored, Rivera to second.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Carroll homered to left center (401 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Perdomo doubled to third, McCarthy scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Arcia grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Albies scored, Ozuna out at second.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Fair odds
- ARI -113
- ATL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.0 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +7 | ATL: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +39 Elo | ARI 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3019–10 | Road vs home | 20–134th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–1 ARI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.