New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Tommy PhamBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 10 K
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Harris II homered to center (443 feet), Hilliard scored.5–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 7Pham hit sacrifice fly to right, Nimmo scored.5–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 34–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6Acuña Jr. singled to left, Harris II scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Harris II doubled to right, Arcia scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 5Murphy homered to left (395 feet), Riley scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pham homered to left center (418 feet), Lindor scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Arcia reached on infield single to third, Riley scored, Ozuna to second, Albies to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Álvarez homered to left (421 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Baty singled to center, McNeil scored, Pham to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- NYM +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +7 | NYM: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +47 Elo | ATL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3015–19 | Road vs home | 16–1415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 1–3 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.