Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach DaviesPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-4, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carroll homered to left center (413 feet), Marte scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Longoria doubled to left, Carroll scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Candelario grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Thomas scored, García out at second.3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3García reached on infield single to first, Call scored, Thomas to third.3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Longoria doubled to left, Rivera scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Rivera doubled to left, Carroll scored and Marte scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Fair odds
- ARI -101
- WSH +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.8 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −7 | ARI: Zach Davies: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +27 Elo | ARI 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 5th of 3016–11 | Road vs home | 12–2028th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 3–1 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.