Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting2-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Stone GarrettBatting1-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Smith homered to left center (392 feet), Perdomo scored.10–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 6Rojas singled to right, Carroll scored and Marte scored, Rivera to third.8–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 26–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 5Thomas homered to left center (428 feet).6–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 5McCarthy hit sacrifice fly to right, Rivera scored.6–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Moreno singled to right, Walker scored, Rivera to third.5–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Rojas hit sacrifice fly to left, Carroll scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 4Smith singled to center, Moreno scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Moreno singled to right, Rojas scored, Moreno to second.2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 1Garrett homered to left center (389 feet), Thomas scored, Meneses scored and Candelario scored.1–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Rivera singled to right, Marte scored, Walker to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Fair odds
- ARI -100
- WSH +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.5 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −23 | ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 1.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +30 Elo | ARI 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 12–1928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 2–1 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.