New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting4-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Albies homered to right (408 feet), Hilliard scored and d'Arnaud scored.10–13
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–13
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 110–10
- 9Arcia homered to left center (414 feet).10–10
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play10–10
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 310–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 210–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–9
- 8d'Arnaud homered to left (401 feet), Riley scored.10–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–7
- 6Rosario singled to center, Riley scored.10–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–7
- 6Álvarez homered to center (416 feet).10–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 19–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–6
- 5Ozuna homered to left center (390 feet).9–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 5Pham doubled to left, Marte scored.9–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 28–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 4Álvarez homered to right center (392 feet), Nimmo scored.8–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 3Acuña Jr. walked, Albies scored, Harris II to second, Arcia to third.6–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 46–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 36–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 3Arcia singled to center, d'Arnaud scored, Albies to third.6–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Fair odds
- ATL -121
- NYM +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −1 | NYM: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +58 Elo | ATL 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 3015–20 | Road vs home | 17–1415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 1–4 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.