Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Braves- Orlando ArciaBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- AJ Smith-ShawverPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arcia reached on infield single to shortstop, Rosario scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Ozuna grounded out to first, Hilliard scored, Rosario to third.2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Meneses doubled to center, Thomas scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Arcia grounded out to shortstop, Albies scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1García singled to right, Thomas scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Fair odds
- ATL -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.7 – 5.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −12 | WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +44 Elo | ATL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 18th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 18–1411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.