Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AbreuBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Triston McKenziePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Naylor hit sacrifice fly to left, Kwan scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 9J. Abreu singled to left, Dubón scored, Tucker to third.6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 7Naylor singled to center, Ramírez scored.5–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 35–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7Ramírez singled to right, Kwan scored, Ramírez to second.5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Dubón singled to left, Meyers scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Meyers doubled to left, Julks scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 1Naylor hit sacrifice fly to left, Rosario scored.3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 13–0
- 1J. Abreu homered to center (421 feet), Bregman scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Bregman singled to left, Altuve scored, Bregman to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 50%
- Fair odds
- CLE -105
- HOU +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.7 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −2 | HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +3 Elo | CLE 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 7th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 15–1622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.