Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting3-5
- James PaxtonPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Brennan doubled to center, Freeman scored, Rosario to third.5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 8Rosario singled to center, Naylor scored, Bell to second.5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Verdugo hit sacrifice fly to center, Hernández scored.5–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 8Reyes singled to right, Casas scored, Refsnyder to second, Hernández to third.4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 8Refsnyder singled to right, Devers scored, Hernández to second, Casas to third.3–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Hernández walked, Turner scored, Casas to second, Devers to third.2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 42–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Hernández singled to left, Yoshida scored, Turner to second.1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Bell doubled to right, Naylor scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Naylor doubled to right, Kwan scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Fair odds
- CLE -108
- BOS +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.6 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −1 | BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +7 Elo | CLE 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 15th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 12–1525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.