Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Twins- Jorge PolancoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kwan homered to right (379 feet).4–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Brennan homered to right (406 feet), Arias scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Solano doubled to center, Vázquez scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Brennan grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Giménez scored, Arias out at second.1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Polanco homered to left center (413 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Fair odds
- MIN -117
- CLE +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −4 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +39 Elo | MIN 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 18–125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 2–3 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.