Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Jeffers homered to left (374 feet), Kepler scored.7–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Lewis singled to center, Farmer scored, Kirilloff to second.5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 7Altuve homered to left center (381 feet), Tucker scored, J. Abreu scored and Dubón scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Tucker grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Alvarez scored, Bregman out at second.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Taylor singled to right, Castro scored, Taylor to second.4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Lewis homered to right (336 feet), Correa scored and Kirilloff scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Fair odds
- HOU -115
- MIN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.7 – 4.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −17 | MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +15 Elo | HOU 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 14–1113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.