Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Castro hit sacrifice fly to right, Jeffers scored, Kirilloff to second, Polanco to third.6–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 8Lewis homered to center (421 feet), Solano scored.6–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 8Solano doubled to left, Castro scored.6–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 6Zunino singled to left, Arias scored and Bell scored, Brennan to second.6–3
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Bell singled to left, Ramírez scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Giménez grounded out to second, Kwan scored, Ramírez to second.3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Ramírez singled to center, Straw scored, Kwan to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Kirilloff singled to right, Vázquez scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 31–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Fair odds
- MIN -115
- CLE +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.0 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −15 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +28 Elo | MIN 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 16–1210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 2–1 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.