Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting4-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Austin VothPitching2.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Naylor singled to left, Ramírez scored.12–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–8
- 5O'Hearn grounded into fielder's choice to second, Henderson scored, Hicks out at second.11–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 111–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–7
- 5Arias homered to center (441 feet), Naylor scored.11–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–7
- 5Naylor doubled to center, Gallagher scored, Rosario scored and Kwan scored.9–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–7
- 4Santander homered to center (423 feet), Rutschman scored.6–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 4Bell homered to left (418 feet).6–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 4Naylor homered to center (401 feet), Kwan scored.5–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 3O'Hearn doubled to center, Hicks scored.3–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 33–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 3Giménez singled to left, Naylor scored and Ramírez scored, Giménez to second, Bell to third.3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 2Rutschman reached on infield single to second, McKenna scored, Frazier to third.1–4
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 2McKenna singled to center, O'Hearn scored and Mateo scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Mateo doubled to right, Hicks scored, O'Hearn to third.1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Fair odds
- BAL -122
- CLE +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −12 | CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Keegan Akin (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +38 Elo | BAL 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 17–115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–1 BAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.