Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Naylor singled to center, Straw scored and Zunino scored, Rosario to second.5–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 6Giménez doubled to right, Naylor scored.3–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 6Bell hit sacrifice fly to center, Ramírez scored.2–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 5Henderson singled to left, Santander scored.1–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 4Bell singled to right, Rosario scored, Naylor to third.1–7
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 2Hays hit sacrifice fly to right, Santander scored.0–7
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 2Santander tripled to right, Mateo scored, Frazier scored and Rutschman scored.0–6
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 30–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 2Rutschman walked, Urías scored, Frazier to second, Mateo to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 40–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 30–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- CLE +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +8 | CLE: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +67 Elo | BAL 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 18th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 16–115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.