Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Cam GallagherBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting3-4
- Tyler WellsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rosario grounded into fielder's choice to second, Gallagher scored and Kwan scored on throwing error by second baseman Frazier, Rosario to second.5–0
- 7Rosario grounded into fielder's choice to second, Gallagher scored and Kwan scored on throwing error by second baseman Frazier, Rosario to second.5–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 7Kwan doubled to center, Brennan scored, Gallagher to third.3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 7Gallagher singled to right, Straw scored, Brennan to second.2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Gallagher hit sacrifice fly to center, Brennan scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 59%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- CLE +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +1 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +62 Elo | BAL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 16–104th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.