Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Christian VazquezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon BielakPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Vázquez singled to left, Lewis scored, Vázquez to second.1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 3J. Abreu hit sacrifice fly to right, Alvarez scored, Tucker to second, Bregman to third.0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Bregman singled to left, Peña scored, Alvarez to second.0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2McCormick homered to left center (417 feet), Julks scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Bregman homered to left center (357 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.9 – 4.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +1 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Brandon Bielak: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +19 Elo | HOU 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.518th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.05th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 14–1214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 3–1 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.