Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Donovan SolanoBatting2-4, 4 RBI
- Louis VarlandPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Astros- Jake MeyersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Diaz homered to left center (381 feet).8–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 8Meyers homered to right center (403 feet).8–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Taylor doubled to center, Castro scored.8–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 6Solano doubled to left, Taylor scored and Castro scored.7–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Jeffers hit a ground rule double, Kirilloff scored and Farmer scored, Gallo to third.5–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Kirilloff singled to left, Taylor scored, Solano to second.3–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Solano singled to right, Castro scored and Kepler scored, Taylor to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Fair odds
- HOU -118
- MIN +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 4.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +11 | MIN: Louis Varland: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +48 Elo | HOU 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 15–1212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 3–2 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.