Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Francisco MejiaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Walls walked, Díaz scored, Paredes to second, Franco to third.4–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 44–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Turner homered to left center (386 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5J. Lowe grounded into fielder's choice to second, Mejía scored, Franco out at second, Díaz to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 5Mejía singled to center, Margot scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 5Margot singled to left, Raley scored, Margot to second.1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Fair odds
- TB -103
- BOS +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.1 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | −6 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 1.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +51 Elo | TB 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.0 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 7th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 17–1516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 6–1 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.