Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Siri homered to center (411 feet), Walls scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 32–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Mancini singled to left, Suzuki scored, Mancini out stretching at second.2–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7B. Lowe homered to center (431 feet), Margot scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Tauchman singled to right, Happ scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Happ singled to center, Hoerner scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.7 – 4.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +3 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +36 Elo | TB 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.1 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 7th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 15–1521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–2 CHC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.