Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Tauchman singled to left, Happ scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Arozarena singled to left, Mejía scored, Franco to second.1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Hoerner homered to left center (367 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 62%
- Fair odds
- TB -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.9 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | −28 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 1.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +84 Elo | TB 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.0 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.1 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 7th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 14–1522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–1 CHC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.