Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Alex VerdugoBatting3-5
- Tanner HouckPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Díaz singled to right, Margot scored. Díaz scored on throwing error by catcher Wong.6–2
- 6Díaz singled to right, Díaz scored on throwing error by catcher Wong and Margot scored on error.6–2
- 6Díaz singled to right, Díaz scored on throwing error by catcher Wong and Margot scored on error.6–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Devers hit sacrifice fly to right, Verdugo scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Raley doubled to right, J. Lowe scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Margot singled to left, Paredes and Raley scored on fielding error by left fielder Yoshida, Walls to second.3–1
- 4Margot singled to left, Paredes scored on fielding error by left fielder Yoshida and Raley scored, Walls to second.3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Yoshida singled to right, Verdugo scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3J. Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, Bethancourt scored, Díaz to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 49%
- Fair odds
- BOS -102
- TB +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.1 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −6 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +8 Elo | TB 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.0 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–624th of 30 |
| 7th of 3015–13 | Road vs home | 17–1414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 5–1 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.