Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Harold RamirezBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramírez doubled to right, Díaz scored and Mejía scored.4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 7Wong scored, Devers safe at second on fielding error by second baseman B. Lowe.2–2
- 7Wong scored on error, Devers safe at first on fielding error by second baseman B. Lowe, Devers safe at second on error.2–2
- 7Wong scored on error, Devers safe at first on fielding error by second baseman B. Lowe, Devers safe at second on error.2–2
- 7Wong scored on error, Devers safe at first on fielding error by second baseman B. Lowe, Devers safe at second on error.2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Siri doubled to left, Ramírez scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Casas tripled to left, Yoshida scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Díaz grounded out to shortstop, Margot scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.3 – 5.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +7 | TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +6 Elo | BOS 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.0 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 17–1313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 4–1 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.