Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Trevor KelleyPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Alex VerdugoBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Garrett WhitlockPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Verdugo doubled to right, Reyes scored.5–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 7Ramírez singled to center, Franco scored, B. Lowe to third.5–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 6Duran singled to right, Yoshida scored.4–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 6Yoshida doubled to left, Turner scored.4–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 6Turner doubled to center, Devers scored, McGuire scored and Reyes scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Reyes singled to right, Hernández scored, McGuire to third.4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 34–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Verdugo singled to right, McGuire scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 5Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to right, Franco scored, Arozarena to second, B. Lowe to third.4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Díaz doubled to left, Bethancourt scored and Walls scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Bethancourt reached on infield single to shortstop, Ramírez scored on throwing error by shortstop Hernández, Walls safe at third on error.1–0
- 2Bethancourt reached on infield single to shortstop, Ramírez scored on throwing error by shortstop Hernández, Walls safe at third on error.1–0
- 2Bethancourt reached on infield single to shortstop, Ramírez scored on throwing error by shortstop Hernández, Walls safe at third on error.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Fair odds
- BOS -103
- TB +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.1 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +11 | TB: Trevor Kelley: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Whitlock: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +4 Elo | BOS 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.9 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.1 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 7th of 3014–12 | Road vs home | 16–1313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 4–0 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.