Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jake MeyersBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon BielakPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jay JacksonPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Varsho homered to right (375 feet).11–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–3
- 8Bregman singled to left, McCormick scored on throwing error by second baseman Merrifield.11–3
- 8Bregman singled to left, McCormick scored on throwing error by second baseman Merrifield.11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–3
- 7Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Kiermaier scored, Springer to third.10–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 210–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging10–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 110–2
- 5Bichette reached on infield single to first, Kiermaier scored.10–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 110–1
- 5Meyers homered to right center (384 feet), Diaz scored.10–1
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play10–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 38–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 28–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 4Tucker homered to left (362 feet).8–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 4Alvarez homered to center (452 feet).7–1
- 4Pitch 9 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 36–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 2Kirk homered to left center (399 feet).6–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 48%
- Fair odds
- TOR -107
- HOU +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.7 – 3.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −14 | HOU: Brandon Bielak: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +12 Elo | HOU 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3017–10 | Road vs home | 15–104th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 2–1 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.