Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ohtani doubled to right, Neto scored.2–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Rengifo homered to right center (400 feet).1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Diaz homered to left center (414 feet).0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Fair odds
- HOU -115
- LAA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −21 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · HOU: J.P. France: team allows 1.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +15 Elo | HOU 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.61st of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 18–139th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–5 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.