Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jaime BarriaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Jake BurgerBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alberto doubled to right, Jiménez scored and Robert Jr. scored.12–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play12–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul12–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul12–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul12–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 112–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging12–3
- 9Burger homered to left (429 feet).12–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–3
- 9Walsh doubled to right, Urshela scored.12–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play12–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 211–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging11–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking11–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–2
- 9Wallach homered to center (431 feet).11–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 210–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking10–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–2
- 7Frazier singled to center, Anderson scored.10–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 210–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 110–1
- 7Ward homered to left center (386 feet), Ohtani scored.10–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging10–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 4Ohtani homered to right center (459 feet), Moniak scored.8–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 36–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul8–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 3Walsh doubled to left, Ward scored and Thaiss scored, Urshela to third.6–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 48%
- Fair odds
- CHW -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.6 – 4.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −8 | LAA: Jaime Barria: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +12 Elo | LAA 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 9th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 13–1423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–1 CHW in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.